Juventude 2-1 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 10 Nov 2024

Juventude
2-1 HT 0-1
Bahia
📅10/11/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Juventude vs Bahia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
42%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.22
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.64
6+ Goals
11%
14.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.22 — our 27% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.46
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
10%
5.16
X/2
12%
5.76
X/X
12%
4.59
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
24%
4.03
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
40%
-9.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
42%
Away Win
34%
+8.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Juventude v Bahia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Juventude EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -1%
1.29/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.49
-16% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +63% / -37%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 75%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
22.3 Crosses 16.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Juventude vs Bahia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Juventude
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Bahia
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.82 xG 1.32
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
373 Passes 377
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
05.07.2024 Bahia Bahia 2-0 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
31.10.2021 Juventude Juventude 0-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
08.07.2021 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Juventude Juventude BR1
28.10.2009 Juventude Juventude 0-1 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR2
29.07.2009 Bahia Bahia 2-2 HT 2-0 Juventude Juventude BR2
24.09.2008 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Juventude Juventude BR2

Juventude 2-1 Bahia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Juventude
2-1
AWAY Bahia
2.23 xG 0.69
38% Ball Possession 62%
20 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
255 Passes 453
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 12
27 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Juventude vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Juventude nicked a narrow win over Bahia 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Bahia at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Juventude had 38% of the ball to Bahia's 62%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 2.23 to 0.69 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Juventude's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Juventude and 1.17 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Juventude vs Bahia?

Juventude 2-1 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Juventude vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Juventude 31%, draw 27%, Bahia 42%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bahia), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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