AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Willem II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 10 Nov 2024

AZ Alkmaar
1-2 HT 0-2
Willem II
📅10/11/2024 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
22%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.82
Over 2.5
53%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.25
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.62
6+ Goals
13%
14.65
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.62 — our 24% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
2.04
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.85
X/1
10%
3.75
X/2
7%
10.75
X/X
11%
5.09
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
24.45
2/2
11%
8.79
2/X
5%
16.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
58%
-5.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
51%
-4.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
49%
+4.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.2pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AZ Alkmaar v Willem II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Willem II EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -19%
2.22/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.51
+26% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
382 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 72%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
18.4 Crosses 19.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.5

AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Willem II
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.66 xG 1.61
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
539 Passes 230
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
31 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
20.03.2022 Willem II Willem II 2-2 HT 2-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
18.12.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 4-1 HT 1-1 Willem II Willem II HOL
03.04.2021 Willem II Willem II 0-1 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
20.12.2020 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 5-3 HT 2-2 Willem II Willem II HOL
18.01.2020 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-3 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
06.10.2019 Willem II Willem II 1-1 HT 1-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL

AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Willem II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
1-2
AWAY Willem II
2.01 xG 0.82
69% Ball Possession 31%
30 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 1
511 Passes 185
87% Pass Accuracy 70%
35 Box Touches 14
32 Crosses 6
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II squeezed past AZ Alkmaar 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was AZ Alkmaar at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 69% of the ball to Willem II's 31%, shots finished 30-7, expected goals 2.01 to 0.82 — on chances, AZ Alkmaar could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.67 for Willem II.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?

AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Willem II in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 53%, draw 25%, Willem II 22%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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