Heartland 1-0 Sunshine Stars — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
12%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.36
Over 2.5
36%
2.96
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.95
No
63%
1.35
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
10%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
28%
X/2
5%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
3%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
56%
+6.4pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.6pp
12%
Away Win
16%
-3.8pp
64%
Under 2.5
70%
-6.2pp
36%
Over 2.5
30%
+6.2pp
37%
BTTS Yes
30%
+6.6pp
63%
BTTS No
70%
-6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heartland EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Sunshine Stars EU Bookmakers 19%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -10%
1.42/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.42/1.49
-4% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
370 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heartland
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Sunshine Stars
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
02.03.2022 Sunshine Stars Sunshine Stars 3-1 HT 2-0 Heartland Heartland NIJ
21.02.2021 Sunshine Stars Sunshine Stars 1-1 HT 0-1 Heartland Heartland NIJ
POST-MATCH Heartland vs Sunshine Stars
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heartland nicked a narrow win over Sunshine Stars 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Heartland as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (63%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sunshine Stars led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Heartland and 2.00 for Sunshine Stars.

What was the final score of Heartland vs Sunshine Stars?

Heartland 1-0 Sunshine Stars in the Nigeria NPFL on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heartland vs Sunshine Stars?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heartland win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Heartland 63%, draw 25%, Sunshine Stars 12%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heartland), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Heartland) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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