New Mexico United 0-1 Las Vegas Lights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 10 Nov 2024

📅10/11/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
37%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
4.23
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
3.01
6+ Goals
10%
9.26
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.23 — our 27% vs market 18.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
43%
-4.2pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
37%
Away Win
32%
+4.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.2pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 36%
-1% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.31/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.44
+4% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +57% / +27%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
319 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 77%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
16.1 Crosses 15.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.66 xG 1.28
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
328 Passes 310
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.08.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-2 HT 1-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
05.05.2024 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-2 HT 1-2 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
31.08.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-3 HT 1-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
05.07.2023 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 2-2 HT 1-2 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
01.10.2022 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 0-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
14.03.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-0 HT 1-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
0-1
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
1.54 xG 0.52
34% Ball Possession 66%
20 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 4
211 Passes 453
82% Pass Accuracy 89%
30 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Las Vegas Lights edged past New Mexico United 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 25% / 37% — and on the day Las Vegas Lights made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, New Mexico United had 34% of the ball to Las Vegas Lights's 66%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 1.54 to 0.52 — the balance of chances actually favoured New Mexico United.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for New Mexico United and 1.33 for Las Vegas Lights.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?

New Mexico United 0-1 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 10/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 39%, draw 25%, Las Vegas Lights 37%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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