Lugazi Municipal 1-1 Uganda Police — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 10 Dec 2025

📅10/12/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.5
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
46%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.62
Over
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
35%
2-3
39%
4-5
19%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
19%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
24%
Home Win
25%
-1.6pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.7pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-1.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.0pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugazi Municipal The Market 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Uganda Police The Market 51%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +33% / +33%
0.00/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/1.00
-100% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -32%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
244 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugazi Municipal
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Uganda Police
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
12.02.2025 Lugazi Municipal 1-0 HT 0-0 Uganda Police Uganda Police UGA
20.11.2024 Uganda Police Uganda Police 0-0 HT 0-0 Lugazi Municipal UGA
POST-MATCH Lugazi Municipal vs Uganda Police
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugazi Municipal and Uganda Police shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Uganda Police at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lugazi Municipal had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lugazi Municipal and 0.00 for Uganda Police.

What was the final score of Lugazi Municipal vs Uganda Police?

Lugazi Municipal 1-1 Uganda Police in the Uganda - Premier League on 10/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugazi Municipal vs Uganda Police?

Before kick-off our model rated an Uganda Police win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lugazi Municipal 24%, draw 30%, Uganda Police 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Uganda Police), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Uganda Police) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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