Ourense CF 2-1 Lugo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.48
Over 2.5
37%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.09
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
16%
5.35
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-1.1pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.5pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+1.6pp
63%
Under 2.5
64%
-1.2pp
37%
Over 2.5
36%
+1.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.6pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ourense CF EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugo EU Bookmakers 34%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +6%
1.26/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/0.62
+0% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +86%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
290 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ourense CF
2-1
AWAY Lugo
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ourense CF vs Lugo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ourense CF squeezed past Lugo 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 33%) promised a tight game; Ourense CF found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ourense CF had 61% of the ball to Lugo's 39%, shots finished 14-8.

What was the final score of Ourense CF vs Lugo?

Ourense CF 2-1 Lugo in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ourense CF vs Lugo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ourense CF win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Ourense CF 38%, draw 29%, Lugo 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ourense CF) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ourense CF) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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