Ponferradina 1-2 Sestao River — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.59
Over 2.5
48%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.16
No
51%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.35
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
4.54
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
59%
-7.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
41%
+7.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.2pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponferradina EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Sestao River EU Bookmakers 22%
+4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +8%
1.58/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.49
-2% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
374 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponferradina
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Sestao River
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
27.01.2024 Ponferradina Ponferradina 1-1 HT 0-1 Sestao River Sestao River İS3
03.09.2023 Sestao River Sestao River 0-1 HT 0-1 Ponferradina Ponferradina İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponferradina
1-2
AWAY Sestao River
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ponferradina vs Sestao River
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sestao River edged past Ponferradina 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Ponferradina at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Ponferradina had 55% of the ball to Sestao River's 45%, shots finished 16-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ponferradina had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ponferradina and 0.50 for Sestao River.

What was the final score of Ponferradina vs Sestao River?

Ponferradina 1-2 Sestao River in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponferradina vs Sestao River?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ponferradina win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Ponferradina 48%, draw 26%, Sestao River 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ponferradina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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