Brest 2-1 Lyon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 11 Jan 2025

Brest
2-1 HT 2-1
Lyon
📅11/01/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Brest vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.47
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.25
6+ Goals
11%
11.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.47 — our 27% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.08
1/2
8%
24.7
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
10%
7.16
X/2
12%
4.71
X/X
14%
4.89
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.82
2/X
5%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
29%
+5.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-5.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.1pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brest v Lyon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brest EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon EU Bookmakers 49%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +5%
1.36/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.29
+5% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -7%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
293 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 425 · 83%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.5
22.8 Crosses 15.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0

Brest vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brest
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lyon
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.35 xG 2.10
40% Ball Possession 60%
16 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
254 Passes 460
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.04.2024 Lyon Lyon 4-3 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
23.09.2023 Brest Brest 1-0 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
01.02.2023 Lyon Lyon 0-0 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1
28.12.2022 Brest Brest 2-4 HT 1-3 Lyon Lyon FR1
20.04.2022 Brest Brest 2-1 HT 1-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
07.08.2021 Lyon Lyon 1-1 HT 0-1 Brest Brest FR1

Brest 2-1 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brest
2-1
AWAY Lyon
1.07 xG 1.43
33% Ball Possession 67%
11 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
227 Passes 549
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brest vs Lyon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brest edged past Lyon 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 26% / 40% — and on the day Brest made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Brest had 33% of the ball to Lyon's 67%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.07 to 1.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Brest and 1.67 for Lyon.

What was the final score of Brest vs Lyon?

Brest 2-1 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brest vs Lyon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Brest 34%, draw 26%, Lyon 40%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lyon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lyon) ✓ BTTS Yes
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