Rennes 1-2 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 11 Jan 2025

Rennes
1-2 HT 1-1
Marsilya
📅11/01/2025 · 🕒23:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Rennes vs Marsilya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.94
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
36%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.96
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.7
6+ Goals
10%
16.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.75
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.0
X/1
10%
6.58
X/2
12%
5.02
X/X
11%
4.26
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.23
2/X
7%
12.7
Value flag · 1/X at 13.0 — our 12% vs market 4.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+3.2pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.3pp
36%
Away Win
41%
-4.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.2pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rennes v Marsilya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rennes EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya EU Bookmakers 45%
-5% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.38/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.33
+4% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -1%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
310 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 82%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
18.1 Crosses 15.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9

Rennes vs Marsilya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rennes
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Marsilya
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.09 xG 1.14
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
361 Passes 379
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.03.2024 Rennes Rennes 2-0 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
21.01.2024 Rennes Rennes 1-1 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FRK
03.12.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 2-0 HT 1-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
05.03.2023 Rennes Rennes 0-1 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
20.01.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 1-0 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FRK
18.09.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 0-1 Rennes Rennes FR1

Rennes 1-2 Marsilya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rennes
1-2
AWAY Marsilya
1.64 xG 1.66
36% Ball Possession 64%
5 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 3
301 Passes 594
83% Pass Accuracy 91%
8 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rennes vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya nicked a narrow win over Rennes 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 30% / 36%) promised a tight game; Marsilya found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rennes had 36% of the ball to Marsilya's 64%, shots finished 5-13, expected goals 1.64 to 1.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Rennes and 1.00 for Marsilya.

What was the final score of Rennes vs Marsilya?

Rennes 1-2 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rennes vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Rennes 34%, draw 30%, Marsilya 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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