Rennes 1-1 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 21 Jan 2024

Rennes
1-1 HT 0-1
Marsilya
📅21/01/2024 · 🕒23:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Cup – 2023/2024

Rennes vs Marsilya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.19
Draw
22%
3.28
Away
42%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.21
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.62
6+ Goals
11%
14.9
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.62 — our 27% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.21
1/2
11%
32.5
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1
16%
4.94
X/2
12%
6.13
X/X
7%
4.5
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
19%
4.35
2/X
7%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-6.0pp
22%
Draw
27%
-4.8pp
42%
Away Win
31%
+10.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.6pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rennes v Marsilya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rennes EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya EU Bookmakers 34%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
1.66/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.68/2.51
+21% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -57%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
338 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 81%
38.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
31.0 Crosses 14.0
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

Rennes vs Marsilya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rennes
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Marsilya
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.16 xG 1.30
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
335 Passes 400
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
03.12.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 2-0 HT 1-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
05.03.2023 Rennes Rennes 0-1 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
20.01.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 1-0 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FRK
18.09.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 0-1 Rennes Rennes FR1
14.05.2022 Rennes Rennes 2-0 HT 2-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
19.09.2021 Marsilya Marsilya 2-0 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1

Rennes 1-1 Marsilya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rennes
1-1
AWAY Marsilya
1.66 xG 0.83
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 5
371 Passes 427
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 18
11 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rennes vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rennes and Marsilya couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Marsilya at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Rennes had 47% of the ball to Marsilya's 53%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.66 to 0.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Rennes and 1.17 for Marsilya.

What was the final score of Rennes vs Marsilya?

Rennes 1-1 Marsilya in the France - Cup on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rennes vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Rennes 36%, draw 22%, Marsilya 42%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Marsilya), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Marsilya) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FRK More France - Cup
21 Jan 2024
19:30 Clermont vs RC Strasbourg Analysis →
19:30 Saint-Priest vs Romorantin Analysis →
19:30 Chateauroux vs Le Havre Analysis →
19:30 Rouen vs Toulouse Analysis →
19:30 Sochaux vs Reims Analysis →
19:30 Racing Paris vs Lille Analysis →