Rouen 3-3 Toulouse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.48
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
45%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.27
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
13.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
7.95
1/2
6%
23.85
1/X
6%
16.05
X/1
16%
9.93
X/2
14%
3.82
X/X
11%
5.06
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
25%
2.11
2/X
8%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
20%
+9.8pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
45%
Away Win
56%
-11.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.6pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rouen EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Toulouse EU Bookmakers 60%
+60% / +60% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.31/0.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.05/0.90
+150% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -55% / -10%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
252 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 399 · 79%
3.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
8.0 Crosses 15.5
0.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rouen
3-3
AWAY Toulouse
3.25 xG 1.99
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 6
324 Passes 528
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
22 Box Touches 29
5 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rouen vs Toulouse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rouen and Toulouse couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 2-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Toulouse at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Rouen had 39% of the ball to Toulouse's 61%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 3.25 to 1.99.

What was the final score of Rouen vs Toulouse?

Rouen 3-3 Toulouse in the France - Cup on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rouen vs Toulouse?

Before kick-off our model rated an Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Rouen 29%, draw 26%, Toulouse 45%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toulouse) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Toulouse) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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