Racing Paris 0-1 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
12.23
Draw
22%
5.71
Away
62%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.29
Over 2.5
58%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.51
No
49%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.34
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
29%
2.89
6+ Goals
9%
8.61
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
27.0
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
27.5
1/X
4%
34.0
X/1
7%
31.0
X/2
16%
3.12
X/X
11%
9.29
2/1
4%
34.0
2/2
37%
1.33
2/X
7%
34.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.5 — our 10% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
6%
+10.6pp
22%
Draw
15%
+6.9pp
62%
Away Win
80%
-17.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
40%
+2.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
60%
-2.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
36%
+15.7pp
49%
BTTS No
64%
-15.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Racing Paris EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 84%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / -10%
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
203 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 449 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Racing Paris
0-1
AWAY Lille
0.28 xG 0.73
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 2
253 Passes 604
75% Pass Accuracy 87%
14 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Racing Paris vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille nicked a narrow win over Racing Paris 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lille as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Racing Paris had 34% of the ball to Lille's 66%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.28 to 0.73.

What was the final score of Racing Paris vs Lille?

Racing Paris 0-1 Lille in the France - Cup on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Racing Paris vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Racing Paris 16%, draw 22%, Lille 62%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lille) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lille) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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