Chateauroux 0-1 Le Havre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 21 Jan 2024

Chateauroux
0-1 HT 0-1
Le Havre
📅21/01/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - Cup – 2023/2024

Chateauroux vs Le Havre Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
4.48
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
40%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.74
Over 2.5
57%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.99
No
44%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.74
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
4.12
6+ Goals
13%
20.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.12 — our 27% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
7.81
1/2
9%
27.0
1/X
7%
15.7
X/1
10%
9.33
X/2
10%
3.89
X/X
11%
4.33
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
21%
2.28
2/X
10%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
19%
+13.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.3pp
40%
Away Win
54%
-13.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
54%
-10.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
46%
+10.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
46%
+10.1pp
44%
BTTS No
54%
-10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chateauroux v Le Havre — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chateauroux EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Le Havre EU Bookmakers 57%
+33% / +33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -78% / -78%
2.00/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/3.00
+74% / +59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -70%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
192 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 458 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards –

Chateauroux vs Le Havre Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chateauroux
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Le Havre
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.81 xG 1.58
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
309 Passes 368
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
13.02.2021 Chateauroux Chateauroux 0-1 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
17.10.2020 Le Havre Le Havre 1-1 HT 1-1 Chateauroux Chateauroux FR2
28.02.2020 Chateauroux Chateauroux 0-3 HT 0-2 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
27.09.2019 Le Havre Le Havre 0-1 HT 0-0 Chateauroux Chateauroux FR2
26.04.2019 Chateauroux Chateauroux 1-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
04.12.2018 Le Havre Le Havre 2-1 HT 1-1 Chateauroux Chateauroux FR2

Chateauroux 0-1 Le Havre — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chateauroux
0-1
AWAY Le Havre
0.24 xG 2.46
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
336 Passes 548
83% Pass Accuracy 89%
8 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chateauroux vs Le Havre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Le Havre nicked a narrow win over Chateauroux 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 27% / 40% — and on the day Le Havre made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chateauroux had 40% of the ball to Le Havre's 60%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.24 to 2.46 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Le Havre's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Le Havre led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Chateauroux and 1.17 for Le Havre.

What was the final score of Chateauroux vs Le Havre?

Chateauroux 0-1 Le Havre in the France - Cup on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chateauroux vs Le Havre?

Before kick-off our model rated an Le Havre win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Chateauroux 33%, draw 27%, Le Havre 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Le Havre) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Le Havre) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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