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Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Baglan Dragons v Caerau (Ely) — Team-Based Signals
Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
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3-0
HT 0-0
Baglan Dragons
GALFAW
Baglan Dragons edged past Caerau (Ely) 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.
Our pre-match lean was Caerau (Ely) at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Caerau (Ely) led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Baglan Dragons and 1.67 for Caerau (Ely).
What was the final score of Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?
Baglan Dragons 2-1 Caerau (Ely) in the Wales - FAW Championship on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?
Before kick-off our model rated an Caerau (Ely) win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Baglan Dragons 29%, draw 23%, Caerau (Ely) 48%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.