Baglan Dragons 2-0 Caerau (Ely) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 20 Jan 2024

Baglan Dragons
2-0
Caerau (Ely)
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Wales - FAW Championship – 2023/2024

Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.76
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
32%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
Over 2.5
59%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.43
No
39%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
52%
-7.5pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.7pp
32%
Away Win
25%
+6.8pp
61%
BTTS Yes
66%
-4.3pp
39%
BTTS No
34%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Baglan Dragons v Caerau (Ely) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baglan Dragons EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Caerau (Ely) EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +56% / +56%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +115%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
359 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baglan Dragons
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Caerau (Ely)
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
The Meetings
06.10.2023 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 3-0 HT 0-0 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons GALFAW
POST-MATCH Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baglan Dragons saw off Caerau (Ely) 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Baglan Dragons as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (61%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?

Baglan Dragons 2-0 Caerau (Ely) in the Wales - FAW Championship on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Baglan Dragons win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Baglan Dragons 45%, draw 23%, Caerau (Ely) 32%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Baglan Dragons) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Baglan Dragons) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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