Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-2 Venados — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
36%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
44%
-6.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
36%
Away Win
29%
+7.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Venados EU Bookmakers 32%
-1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +0%
1.25/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.14
-17% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +16%
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
392 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.5 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Venados
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
27.07.2024 Venados Venados 1-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
19.01.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-5 HT 0-2 Venados Venados MEK2
28.09.2023 Venados Venados 5-1 HT 2-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
05.01.2023 Venados Venados 1-0 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
20.10.2022 Venados Venados 4-2 HT 4-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
16.09.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-2 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Venados
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tepatitlán de Morelos and Venados shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Venados led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 3.00 for Venados.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Venados?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-2 Venados in the Mexico - Primera A on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Venados?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tepatitlán de Morelos win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 37%, draw 27%, Venados 36%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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