Mazatlan 1-1 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.58
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
26%
3.06
6+ Goals
11%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.9pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 28%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -1%
1.41/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.44
-30% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
303 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 78%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
18.7 Crosses 19.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mazatlan
0W-2D-4L
AWAY FC Juarez
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.38 xG 1.10
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
338 Passes 307
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
20.04.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-2 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
02.09.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 3-1 HT 2-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
26.07.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-1 HT 0-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez CONLK
04.02.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-3 HT 1-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
21.08.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 0-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mazatlan
1-1
AWAY FC Juarez
0.47 xG 1.89
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
382 Passes 367
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
29 Box Touches 11
29 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mazatlan vs FC Juarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mazatlan and FC Juarez couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Mazatlan at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Mazatlan had 52% of the ball to FC Juarez's 48%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.47 to 1.89.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Juarez led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mazatlan and 1.83 for FC Juarez.

What was the final score of Mazatlan vs FC Juarez?

Mazatlan 1-1 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mazatlan vs FC Juarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mazatlan win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 46%, draw 24%, FC Juarez 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mazatlan), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mazatlan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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