Tijuana vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Tijuana v Toluca — Team-Based Signals
Tijuana vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-0
Toluca
MEK
3-3
HT 0-3
Toluca
MEK
3-1
HT 1-1
Tijuana
MEK
1-2
HT 1-1
Tijuana
MEK
Tijuana 2-4 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca beat Tijuana 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match lean was Tijuana at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Tijuana had 72% of the ball to Toluca's 28%, shots finished 21-21, expected goals 2.56 to 3.28.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tijuana and 2.33 for Toluca.
What was the final score of Tijuana vs Toluca?
Tijuana 2-4 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Toluca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 42%, draw 24%, Toluca 33%. The final score 2-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.