Toluca vs Tijuana Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Tijuana — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Tijuana Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-0
Toluca
MEK
3-3
HT 0-3
Toluca
MEK
3-1
HT 1-1
Tijuana
MEK
1-2
HT 1-1
Tijuana
MEK
0-2
HT 0-1
Toluca
MEK
Toluca 4-0 Tijuana — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca swept aside Tijuana 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Toluca had 52% of the ball to Tijuana's 48%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 3.28 to 0.92.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Toluca and 1.33 for Tijuana.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Tijuana?
Toluca 4-0 Tijuana in the Mexico - Primera on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Tijuana?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Toluca 57%, draw 21%, Tijuana 22%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.