Toluca 2-0 Tijuana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.45
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.33
Over 2.5
56%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.87
2-3 Goals
40%
1.94
4-5 Goals
26%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
7.52
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
4%
X/X
14%
2/1
12%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
64%
-5.9pp
23%
Draw
20%
+3.7pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+2.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
39%
+5.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
61%
-5.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.9pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toluca EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Tijuana EU Bookmakers 19%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -19%
2.13/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.87
+1% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -11%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
415 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 74%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
16.8 Crosses 15.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toluca
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Tijuana
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.00 xG 1.32
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
380 Passes 290
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
16.09.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 2-1 HT 2-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
18.03.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 3-3 HT 0-3 Toluca Toluca MEK
07.08.2022 Toluca Toluca 3-1 HT 1-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
02.03.2022 Toluca Toluca 1-2 HT 1-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
07.08.2021 Tijuana Tijuana 0-2 HT 0-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
31.01.2021 Tijuana Tijuana 3-2 HT 3-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
2-0
AWAY Tijuana
1.56 xG 0.58
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 6
355 Passes 328
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Toluca vs Tijuana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca beat Tijuana 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Toluca had 51% of the ball to Tijuana's 49%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.56 to 0.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tijuana led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Toluca and 1.83 for Tijuana.

What was the final score of Toluca vs Tijuana?

Toluca 2-0 Tijuana in the Mexico - Primera on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toluca vs Tijuana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Toluca 59%, draw 23%, Tijuana 18%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toluca) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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