Club America 1-0 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.68
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.29
6+ Goals
11%
11.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.68 — our 29% vs market 21.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.2pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.0pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.1pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Club America EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -12%
1.55/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.31
-9% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
303 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 77%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
19.6 Crosses 15.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Club America
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Cruz Azul
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.35 xG 0.84
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
406 Passes 324
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.09.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-3 HT 1-3 Club America Club America MEK
16.04.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-3 HT 1-1 Club America Club America MEK
21.08.2022 Club America Club America 7-0 HT 3-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
01.05.2022 Club America Club America 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
01.11.2021 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-1 HT 1-0 Club America Club America MEK
18.04.2021 Club America Club America 1-1 HT 1-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Club America
1-0
AWAY Cruz Azul
0.93 xG 0.75
28% Ball Possession 72%
7 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 12
185 Passes 551
72% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 29
8 Crosses 37
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Club America vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Club America nicked a narrow win over Cruz Azul 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Club America as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Club America had 28% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 72%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.93 to 0.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Club America had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Club America and 1.00 for Cruz Azul.

What was the final score of Club America vs Cruz Azul?

Club America 1-0 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Club America vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated a Club America win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Club America 42%, draw 28%, Cruz Azul 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Club America), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Club America) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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