Guadalajara 3-1 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.34
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.54
6+ Goals
10%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 31% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.6pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -24%
1.32/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.51
-8% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -16%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
18.6 Crosses 18.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.10 xG 1.22
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
290 Passes 297
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.12.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 3-0 HT 2-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
01.12.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 1-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
12.11.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-0 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
19.02.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-2 HT 0-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
28.08.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 3-1 HT 3-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
09.05.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 4-1 HT 1-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
3-1
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.62 xG 1.15
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
319 Passes 310
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara got the better of Pumas UNAM 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Guadalajara had 50% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 50%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 1.62 to 1.15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Guadalajara and 1.17 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM?

Guadalajara 3-1 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 43%, draw 28%, Pumas UNAM 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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