Leon 1-2 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 15 Sep 2024

Leon
1-2 HT 1-1
Cruz Azul
📅15/09/2024 · 🕒05:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Leon vs Cruz Azul Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.69
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
48%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.45
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.46
6+ Goals
10%
13.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 26% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
19%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
24%
+2.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
48%
Away Win
51%
-2.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.7pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leon v Cruz Azul — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 55%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -11%
1.19/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.18
+13% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -24%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
283 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 79%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
19.6 Crosses 18.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1

Leon vs Cruz Azul Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Cruz Azul
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.82 xG 1.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
345 Passes 283
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.02.2024 Leon Leon 2-3 HT 0-2 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
29.10.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK
09.04.2023 Leon Leon 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
09.10.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
16.09.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-1 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
08.02.2022 Leon Leon 0-1 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK

Leon 1-2 Cruz Azul — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
1-2
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.31 xG 2.01
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
258 Passes 384
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 30
21 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Leon vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul edged past Leon 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cruz Azul as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Leon had 42% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 58%, shots finished 9-22, expected goals 1.31 to 2.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Leon and 1.33 for Cruz Azul.

What was the final score of Leon vs Cruz Azul?

Leon 1-2 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Leon 26%, draw 26%, Cruz Azul 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✓ BTTS Yes
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