FC Juarez 1-0 Mazatlan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒05:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.16
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.71
6+ Goals
10%
15.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 28% vs market 26.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+1.6pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.3pp
36%
Away Win
35%
+1.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.7pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 38%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.24/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.45
-8% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -36%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
251 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
19.6 Crosses 10.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Juarez
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Mazatlan
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.97 xG 1.31
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
355 Passes 322
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-2 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
02.09.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 3-1 HT 2-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
26.07.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-1 HT 0-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez CONLK
04.02.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-3 HT 1-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
21.08.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 0-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
23.04.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-2 HT 0-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Juarez
1-0
AWAY Mazatlan
0.90 xG 1.28
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 14
167 Passes 333
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 42
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH FC Juarez vs Mazatlan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Juarez squeezed past Mazatlan 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; FC Juarez found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, FC Juarez had 37% of the ball to Mazatlan's 63%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 0.90 to 1.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Juarez had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for FC Juarez and 1.17 for Mazatlan.

What was the final score of FC Juarez vs Mazatlan?

FC Juarez 1-0 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Juarez vs Mazatlan?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Juarez win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split FC Juarez 39%, draw 25%, Mazatlan 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Juarez), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Juarez) ✓ BTTS No
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