Puebla 2-1 Queretaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.9
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.98
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
3.91
6+ Goals
9%
17.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
48%
+2.2pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.7pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.6pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Queretaro EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +24%
1.23/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.39
-6% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
330 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 76%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
21.1 Crosses 18.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Queretaro
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.29 xG 1.36
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
350 Passes 218
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
24.02.2024 Puebla Puebla 0-2 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
18.09.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
14.01.2023 Puebla Puebla 2-0 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
02.09.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
07.02.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 0-2 HT 0-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
28.08.2021 Puebla Puebla 1-0 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
2-1
AWAY Queretaro
1.61 xG 0.66
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
328 Passes 343
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Queretaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puebla nicked a narrow win over Queretaro 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Puebla as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Puebla had 49% of the ball to Queretaro's 51%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.61 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puebla had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Puebla and 0.67 for Queretaro.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Queretaro?

Puebla 2-1 Queretaro in the Mexico - Primera on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Queretaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Puebla win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Puebla 51%, draw 23%, Queretaro 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Puebla) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Puebla) ✗ BTTS No
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