Kayserispor 0-1 Samsunspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.31
6+ Goals
12%
12.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 27% vs market 23.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.03
1/2
9%
25.0
1/X
9%
13.6
X/1
9%
7.05
X/2
16%
4.74
X/X
15%
4.81
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.87
2/X
5%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+2.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.7pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-4.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.8pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kayserispor EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Samsunspor EU Bookmakers 49%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.40/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/0.66
-13% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +24%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
259 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 418 · 82%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
19.3 Crosses 24.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kayserispor
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Samsunspor
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.85 xG 1.19
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
424 Passes 288
82% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 13
25.01.2024 Samsunspor Samsunspor 2-0 HT 1-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
27.08.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-1 HT 2-1 Samsunspor Samsunspor TSL
21.02.2015 Samsunspor Samsunspor 2-0 HT 1-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor T1L
28.09.2014 Kayserispor Kayserispor 1-1 HT 0-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor T1L
18.03.2012 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-0 HT 0-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TSL
08.12.2011 Samsunspor Samsunspor 0-1 HT 0-1 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kayserispor
0-1
AWAY Samsunspor
0.84 xG 0.80
61% Ball Possession 39%
8 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
380 Passes 223
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 15
32 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kayserispor vs Samsunspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Samsunspor nicked a narrow win over Kayserispor 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 29% / 40% — and on the day Samsunspor made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Kayserispor had 61% of the ball to Samsunspor's 39%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.84 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kayserispor had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kayserispor and 1.00 for Samsunspor.

What was the final score of Kayserispor vs Samsunspor?

Kayserispor 0-1 Samsunspor in the Turkey - Super League on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kayserispor vs Samsunspor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Samsunspor win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Kayserispor 31%, draw 29%, Samsunspor 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Samsunspor) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Samsunspor) ✗ BTTS Yes
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