Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Mallorca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 11 Jan 2026

📅11/01/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
22%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.52
Over 2.5
41%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.16
No
52%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.27
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
5.19
6+ Goals
8%
32.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.62
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
15.05
X/1
18%
4.21
X/2
9%
8.42
X/X
11%
3.86
2/1
10%
31.5
2/2
7%
7.54
2/X
10%
16.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
50%
+0.2pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.4pp
22%
Away Win
22%
+0.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.6pp
52%
BTTS No
58%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Mallorca EU Bookmakers 25%
-7% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +6%
1.58/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.40
-10% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
342 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 71%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
25.8 Crosses 16.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Mallorca
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.44 xG 1.35
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
356 Passes 260
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
24.05.2025 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-0 HT 0-0 Mallorca Mallorca İS1
20.10.2024 Mallorca Mallorca 1-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
11.02.2024 Mallorca Mallorca 2-1 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
30.09.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-2 HT 1-1 Mallorca Mallorca İS1
04.06.2023 Mallorca Mallorca 3-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
27.08.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-2 HT 0-1 Mallorca Mallorca İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
2-1
AWAY Mallorca
2.37 xG 0.75
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
284 Passes 233
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 10
19 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Vallecano squeezed past Mallorca 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Rayo Vallecano as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 53% of the ball to Mallorca's 47%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 2.37 to 0.75 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Rayo Vallecano's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mallorca led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.67 for Mallorca.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca?

Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Mallorca in the Spain - Primera Liga on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Mallorca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 50%, draw 28%, Mallorca 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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İS1 More Spain - Primera Liga
11 Jan 2026
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