Malaga vs Ceuta Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Malaga v Ceuta — Team-Based Signals
Malaga vs Ceuta Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
Malaga 2-1 Ceuta — Actual Match Statistics
Malaga nicked a narrow win over Ceuta 2-1.
Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Malaga found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Malaga had 50% of the ball to Ceuta's 50%, shots finished 18-3, expected goals 2.49 to 0.33 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Malaga's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ceuta led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Malaga and 2.00 for Ceuta.
What was the final score of Malaga vs Ceuta?
Malaga 2-1 Ceuta in the Spain - 2nd Division on 11/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Malaga vs Ceuta?
Before kick-off our model rated a Malaga win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Malaga 40%, draw 28%, Ceuta 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Malaga), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.