Malaga 1-1 Ceuta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 7 Apr 2024

Malaga
1-1 HT 1-1
Ceuta
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.68
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.39
6+ Goals
8%
22.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-4.0pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.0pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+1.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.6pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malaga EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Ceuta EU Bookmakers 26%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +11%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.04
-34% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +19%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Malaga
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Ceuta
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
14.01.2024 Ceuta Ceuta 3-2 HT 1-0 Malaga Malaga İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malaga
1-1
AWAY Ceuta
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Malaga vs Ceuta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Malaga and Ceuta couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Malaga at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Malaga had 59% of the ball to Ceuta's 41%, shots finished 13-6.

What was the final score of Malaga vs Ceuta?

Malaga 1-1 Ceuta in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malaga vs Ceuta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Malaga win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Malaga 46%, draw 30%, Ceuta 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Malaga), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Malaga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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