Barcelona 3-3 Granada — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 11 Feb 2024

Barcelona
3-3 HT 1-1
Granada
📅11/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Barcelona vs Granada Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.18
Draw
22%
6.26
Away
18%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.63
Over 2.5
56%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.17
2-3 Goals
40%
2.07
4-5 Goals
25%
2.51
6+ Goals
14%
5.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.34
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
26.5
X/1
20%
3.49
X/2
5%
25.5
X/X
9%
10.0
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.2
2/2
7%
18.25
2/X
8%
25.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.2 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
79%
-19.1pp
22%
Draw
12%
+9.5pp
18%
Away Win
8%
+9.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
34%
+9.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
66%
-9.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.8pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Barcelona v Granada — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barcelona EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Granada EU Bookmakers 11%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -18%
2.26/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.69
-3% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -9%
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
522 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 73%
38.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
19.9 Crosses 15.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.9

Barcelona vs Granada Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barcelona
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Granada
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.08 xG 1.13
76% Ball Possession 24%
20 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
711 Passes 168
90% Pass Accuracy 68%
43 Box Touches 12
26 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
08.10.2023 Granada Granada 2-2 HT 2-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
08.01.2022 Granada Granada 1-1 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
20.09.2021 Barcelona Barcelona 1-1 HT 0-1 Granada Granada İS1
29.04.2021 Barcelona Barcelona 1-2 HT 1-0 Granada Granada İS1
03.02.2021 Granada Granada 3-5 HT 1-0 Barcelona Barcelona İSPK
09.01.2021 Granada Granada 0-4 HT 0-3 Barcelona Barcelona İS1

Barcelona 3-3 Granada — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barcelona
3-3
AWAY Granada
2.27 xG 1.43
66% Ball Possession 34%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
537 Passes 228
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
30 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Barcelona vs Granada
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona and Granada couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Barcelona carried 60% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Barcelona had 66% of the ball to Granada's 34%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 2.27 to 1.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Barcelona and 1.50 for Granada.

What was the final score of Barcelona vs Granada?

Barcelona 3-3 Granada in the Spain - Primera Liga on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barcelona vs Granada?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Barcelona 60%, draw 22%, Granada 18%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Barcelona) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Barcelona) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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