Navalcarnero 1-1 Atlético Paso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.44
Over 2.5
35%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.27
No
61%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
12%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+1.1pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.4pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.3pp
65%
Under 2.5
66%
-0.6pp
35%
Over 2.5
34%
+0.5pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-0.6pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Navalcarnero EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlético Paso EU Bookmakers 33%
-2% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.06/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.27/0.77
-11% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -73% / +42%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Navalcarnero
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Atlético Paso
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.10.2023 Atlético Paso Atlético Paso 0-0 HT 0-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
15.01.2023 Atlético Paso Atlético Paso 2-1 HT 2-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Navalcarnero
1-1
AWAY Atlético Paso
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 10
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Navalcarnero vs Atlético Paso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Navalcarnero and Atlético Paso couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Navalcarnero at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (65%) landed while no to both teams scoring (61%) missed.

On the day, Navalcarnero had 49% of the ball to Atlético Paso's 51%, shots finished 10-10.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Atlético Paso led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Navalcarnero and 1.00 for Atlético Paso.

What was the final score of Navalcarnero vs Atlético Paso?

Navalcarnero 1-1 Atlético Paso in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Navalcarnero vs Atlético Paso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Navalcarnero win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Navalcarnero 41%, draw 27%, Atlético Paso 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Navalcarnero), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Navalcarnero) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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