Numancia 2-3 Illescas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.54
Over 2.5
46%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.16
No
54%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
11%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-6.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+5.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
61%
-7.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
39%
+7.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.7pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Numancia EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Illescas EU Bookmakers 24%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.78/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/0.87
+14% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +51%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
295 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Numancia
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Illescas
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 1
4 Yellow Cards 2
01.10.2023 Illescas 1-2 HT 1-0 Numancia Numancia İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Numancia
2-3
AWAY Illescas
61% Ball Possession 39%
21 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Numancia vs Illescas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Illescas squeezed past Numancia 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Numancia at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Numancia had 61% of the ball to Illescas's 39%, shots finished 21-11.

What was the final score of Numancia vs Illescas?

Numancia 2-3 Illescas in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Numancia vs Illescas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Numancia win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Numancia 46%, draw 28%, Illescas 26%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Numancia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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