Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aston Villa v Brighton & Hove Albion — Team-Based Signals
Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Aston Villa 1-0 Brighton & Hove Albion — Actual Match Statistics
Aston Villa nicked a narrow win over Brighton & Hove Albion 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Aston Villa had 50% of the ball to Brighton & Hove Albion's 50%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 0.72 to 0.56.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Aston Villa and 1.33 for Brighton & Hove Albion.
What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Aston Villa 1-0 Brighton & Hove Albion in the England - Premier League on 11/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 51%, draw 23%, Brighton & Hove Albion 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.