Crystal Palace vs Burnley Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Crystal Palace v Burnley — Team-Based Signals
Crystal Palace vs Burnley Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Crystal Palace 2-3 Burnley — Actual Match Statistics
Burnley edged past Crystal Palace 3-2 away from home. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Crystal Palace at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Crystal Palace had 64% of the ball to Burnley's 36%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 1.80 to 0.51 — the balance of chances actually favoured Crystal Palace.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crystal Palace had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.17 for Burnley.
What was the final score of Crystal Palace vs Burnley?
Crystal Palace 2-3 Burnley in the England - Premier League on 11/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Crystal Palace vs Burnley?
Before kick-off our model rated a Crystal Palace win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Crystal Palace 60%, draw 21%, Burnley 19%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Crystal Palace) went the other way.