Aston Villa 1-0 Brighton & Hove Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 11 Feb 2026

📅11/02/2026 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
2.0
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
26%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.18
Over Pick
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1
23%
4.28
2-3
41%
1.88
4-5
25%
2.91
6+
11%
8.54
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.76
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
8%
12.55
X/1
13%
5.11
X/2
10%
7.49
X/X
11%
5.45
2/1
11%
22.25
2/2
11%
5.01
2/X
4%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.25 — our 11% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
51%
Home Win
46%
+4.7pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.4pp
26%
Away Win
28%
-2.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+1.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-1.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.6pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion The Market 32%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -10%
1.58/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.29
+4% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
391 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 77%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
18.6 Crosses 17.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aston Villa
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.65 xG 1.64
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
313 Passes 384
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
03.12.2025 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 3-4 HT 2-2 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
02.04.2025 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 0-3 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
30.12.2024 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-2 HT 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
05.05.2024 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 1-0 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
30.09.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 6-1 HT 3-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
28.05.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-1 HT 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
1-0
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
0.72 xG 0.56
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
342 Passes 348
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
31 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa nicked a narrow win over Brighton & Hove Albion 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aston Villa had 50% of the ball to Brighton & Hove Albion's 50%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 0.72 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Aston Villa and 1.33 for Brighton & Hove Albion.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Aston Villa 1-0 Brighton & Hove Albion in the England - Premier League on 11/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 51%, draw 23%, Brighton & Hove Albion 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
11 Feb 2026
22:30 Nottingham Forest vs Wolverhampton Analysis →
22:30 Manchester City vs Fulham Analysis →
22:40 Crystal Palace vs Burnley Analysis →
23:15 Sunderland vs Liverpool Analysis →