Crystal Palace U21 4-2 Aston Villa U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League 2 (League 1), 11 Mar 2024

📅11/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.47
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
44%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
3.59
Over 2.5
59%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.29
No
45%
3.23
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
6%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
36%
-3.8pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.4pp
44%
Away Win
41%
+3.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
24%
+16.8pp
59%
Over 2.5
76%
-16.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
73%
-18.6pp
45%
BTTS No
27%
+18.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crystal Palace U21 EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa U21 EU Bookmakers 45%
+46% / +46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +50% / +50%
1.21/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.26/0.69
+18% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% /
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
308 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.0 Crosses 16.0
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crystal Palace U21
4-2
AWAY Aston Villa U21
1.81 xG 3.48
33% Ball Possession 67%
8 Total Shots 24
5 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 10
154 Passes 398
66% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Crystal Palace U21 vs Aston Villa U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crystal Palace U21 saw off Aston Villa U21 4-2. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Aston Villa U21 at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Crystal Palace U21 had 33% of the ball to Aston Villa U21's 67%, shots finished 8-24, expected goals 1.81 to 3.48 — the balance of chances actually favoured Aston Villa U21.

What was the final score of Crystal Palace U21 vs Aston Villa U21?

Crystal Palace U21 4-2 Aston Villa U21 in the England - Premier League 2 (League 1) on 11/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crystal Palace U21 vs Aston Villa U21?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aston Villa U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Crystal Palace U21 33%, draw 23%, Aston Villa U21 44%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aston Villa U21) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aston Villa U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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