Exeter City 2-0 Mansfield Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
42%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.64
Over 2.5
50%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.52
2-3 Goals
37%
1.71
4-5 Goals
26%
4.16
6+ Goals
10%
21.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.73
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
29.5
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
12%
6.18
X/2
15%
4.92
X/X
9%
4.11
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.34
2/X
8%
13.65
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.5 — our 11% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.0pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.8pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+1.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
57%
-7.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
43%
+7.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.5pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Exeter City EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Mansfield Town EU Bookmakers 45%
-7% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.05/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.19
-12% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
266 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 66%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
21.1 Crosses 24.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Exeter City
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mansfield Town
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.19 xG 0.82
50% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
216 Passes 214
58% Pass Accuracy 59%
21 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.03.2022 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
23.10.2021 Exeter City Exeter City 2-1 HT 0-0 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İN2
05.04.2021 Exeter City Exeter City 0-0 HT 0-0 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İN2
26.09.2020 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 1-2 HT 1-1 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
31.08.2019 Exeter City Exeter City 1-0 HT 1-0 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İN2
30.03.2019 Exeter City Exeter City 1-4 HT 1-2 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Exeter City
2-0
AWAY Mansfield Town
1.70 xG 0.22
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 1
178 Passes 411
62% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 11
13 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Exeter City vs Mansfield Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Exeter City beat Mansfield Town 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Mansfield Town at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Exeter City had 35% of the ball to Mansfield Town's 65%, shots finished 10-5, expected goals 1.70 to 0.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Exeter City had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Exeter City and 1.33 for Mansfield Town.

What was the final score of Exeter City vs Mansfield Town?

Exeter City 2-0 Mansfield Town in the England - 1st Division on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Exeter City vs Mansfield Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mansfield Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Exeter City 34%, draw 24%, Mansfield Town 42%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mansfield Town) ✗ BTTS Yes
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