Birmingham 2-1 Stevenage — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.49
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.62
Over 2.5
48%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.44
No
60%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.43
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
4.35
6+ Goals
9%
23.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.84
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
19.4
X/1
21%
3.56
X/2
7%
13.35
X/X
12%
4.79
2/1
9%
29.0
2/2
7%
13.05
2/X
7%
22.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
63%
-7.9pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.4pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+6.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
58%
-5.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
42%
+5.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
37%
+3.6pp
60%
BTTS No
63%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Stevenage EU Bookmakers 16%
+17% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -7%
1.61/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/2.34
-20% / +113% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +22%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
350 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 207 · 65%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
25.3 Crosses 14.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Stevenage
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.39 xG 0.67
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 4
356 Passes 221
79% Pass Accuracy 70%
33 Box Touches 10
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.02.2025 Stevenage Stevenage 0-1 HT 0-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham
2-1
AWAY Stevenage
1.31 xG 0.47
72% Ball Possession 28%
10 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
503 Passes 141
84% Pass Accuracy 61%
26 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Birmingham vs Stevenage
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham squeezed past Stevenage 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Birmingham as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Birmingham had 72% of the ball to Stevenage's 28%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 1.31 to 0.47.

What was the final score of Birmingham vs Stevenage?

Birmingham 2-1 Stevenage in the England - 1st Division on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham vs Stevenage?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Birmingham 56%, draw 25%, Stevenage 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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