Makhachkala 1-2 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Super Cup, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.08
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
47%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.78
Over 2.5
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.85
2-3 Goals
45%
1.72
4-5 Goals
19%
3.67
6+ Goals
12%
16.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.12
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
26.5
1/X
7%
13.9
X/1
7%
6.8
X/2
18%
4.8
X/X
14%
4.42
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.98
2/X
4%
13.2
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.5 — our 11% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
29%
-1.2pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.3pp
47%
Away Win
44%
+3.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.9pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Makhachkala EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +8%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
277 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Makhachkala
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.71 xG 1.71
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
248 Passes 392
69% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 30
18 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 0
28.02.2025 Makhachkala Makhachkala 1-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
10.08.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-0 HT 1-0 Makhachkala Makhachkala RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Makhachkala
1-2
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Makhachkala vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow squeezed past Makhachkala 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lokomotiv Moscow as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Makhachkala had 40% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 60%, shots finished 12-11.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Makhachkala and 1.50 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of Makhachkala vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Makhachkala 1-2 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Super Cup on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Makhachkala vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Makhachkala 28%, draw 25%, Lokomotiv Moscow 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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