Krasnodar 1-2 FC Akhmat Grozny — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Super Cup, 11 Mar 2025

📅11/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.49
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
29%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.38
2-3 Goals
35%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.18
6+ Goals
11%
11.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 32% vs market 22.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.86
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.4
X/1
16%
3.9
X/2 EV+ ✓
11%
12.05
X/X
12%
5.76
2/1
7%
22.55
2/2
11%
10.2
2/X
5%
18.7
Value flag · X/2 at 12.05 — our 11% vs market 5.3%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
62%
-15.8pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.5pp
29%
Away Win
16%
+13.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.2pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 19%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-28% / -68% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
456 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 206 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krasnodar
1W-3D-2L
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.00 xG 1.17
65% Ball Possession 35%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
478 Passes 172
83% Pass Accuracy 67%
24 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.10.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 3-0 HT 2-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUK
15.08.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUK
21.07.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-1 HT 1-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
04.05.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
16.09.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-1 HT 1-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
03.06.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 2-2 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krasnodar
1-2
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
60% Ball Possession 40%
23 Total Shots 13
11 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Krasnodar vs FC Akhmat Grozny
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Akhmat Grozny squeezed past Krasnodar 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Krasnodar at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Krasnodar had 60% of the ball to FC Akhmat Grozny's 40%, shots finished 23-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Akhmat Grozny led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Krasnodar and 1.33 for FC Akhmat Grozny.

What was the final score of Krasnodar vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Krasnodar 1-2 FC Akhmat Grozny in the Russia - Super Cup on 11/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krasnodar vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Krasnodar 47%, draw 24%, FC Akhmat Grozny 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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