FC Akhmat Grozny 1-1 Krasnodar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
40%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.53
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.39
6+ Goals
11%
12.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.53 — our 26% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
3.33
1/2
9%
29.5
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
15%
5.19
X/2
11%
5.99
X/X
12%
4.78
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
20%
4.06
2/X
8%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
40%
-8.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
40%
Away Win
33%
+6.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.0pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 37%
-5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -11%
1.19/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.20
-14% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
286 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 77%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
17.7 Crosses 15.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Krasnodar
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.50 xG 1.18
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
189 Passes 468
66% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 29
11 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
04.05.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
16.09.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-1 HT 1-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
03.06.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 2-2 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
15.03.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-3 HT 0-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUSK
15.10.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-3 HT 1-2 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
21.05.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
1-1
AWAY Krasnodar
0.86 xG 1.02
31% Ball Possession 69%
13 Total Shots 12
0 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
155 Passes 433
69% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH FC Akhmat Grozny vs Krasnodar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Akhmat Grozny and Krasnodar couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 40% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, FC Akhmat Grozny had 31% of the ball to Krasnodar's 69%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 0.86 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Akhmat Grozny had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FC Akhmat Grozny and 1.50 for Krasnodar.

What was the final score of FC Akhmat Grozny vs Krasnodar?

FC Akhmat Grozny 1-1 Krasnodar in the Russia - Premier League on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Akhmat Grozny vs Krasnodar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split FC Akhmat Grozny 32%, draw 28%, Krasnodar 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Krasnodar), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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