FK Orenburg 2-0 Spartak Moskova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 21 Jul 2024

FK Orenburg
2-0 HT 0-0
Spartak Moskova
📅21/07/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2024/2025

FK Orenburg vs Spartak Moskova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.96
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.13
6+ Goals
11%
10.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.68
1/2
7%
23.6
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
8%
6.87
X/2
12%
4.79
X/X
11%
5.15
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
25%
2.83
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
13.1
Value flag · 2/X at 13.1 — our 10% vs market 4.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-1.7pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.6pp
44%
Away Win
45%
-0.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.9pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FK Orenburg v Spartak Moskova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 49%
+13% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -23%
1.78/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.25
+38% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
313 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 74%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
24.0 Crosses 19.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6

FK Orenburg vs Spartak Moskova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Spartak Moskova
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.04 xG 2.15
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
260 Passes 385
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 43
12 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.05.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
14.03.2024 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 3-1 HT 1-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUK
29.11.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-0 HT 1-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUK
23.07.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 3-2 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
18.03.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-0 HT 2-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
31.07.2022 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 4-1 HT 3-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS

FK Orenburg 2-0 Spartak Moskova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
2-0
AWAY Spartak Moskova
2.45 xG 1.27
37% Ball Possession 63%
19 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
249 Passes 481
80% Pass Accuracy 89%
29 Box Touches 36
20 Crosses 34
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Spartak Moskova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Orenburg got the better of Spartak Moskova 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Spartak Moskova at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 37% of the ball to Spartak Moskova's 63%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 2.45 to 1.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spartak Moskova led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FK Orenburg and 1.67 for Spartak Moskova.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Spartak Moskova?

FK Orenburg 2-0 Spartak Moskova in the Russia - Premier League on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Spartak Moskova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 28%, draw 28%, Spartak Moskova 44%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Spartak Moskova) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✓ Under 2.5
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