Wolfsburg 2-3 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.29
Over Pick
50%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.49
No
50%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1
27%
4.69
2-3
38%
1.93
4-5
24%
2.77
6+
11%
7.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.91
1/2
7%
23.3
1/X
8%
12.35
X/1
17%
6.49
X/2
12%
5.84
X/X
11%
5.54
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
17%
3.32
2/X
6%
12.2
Value flag · X/1 at 6.49 — our 17% vs market 11.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 50%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
36%
+3.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-3.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
40%
+10.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
60%
-10.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
63%
-13.1pp
50%
BTTS No
37%
+13.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 43%
+6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -7%
1.68/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.52
+18% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -22%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
349 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 79%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.9
19.0 Crosses 18.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolfsburg
3W-0D-3L
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.93 xG 1.91
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
321 Passes 482
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.02.2025 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-0 HT 0-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AFK
30.11.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-5 HT 0-3 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
13.04.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-0 HT 1-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
25.11.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-1 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
31.10.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-0 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AFK
18.02.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 0-3 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolfsburg
2-3
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.62 xG 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
315 Passes 383
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
31 Box Touches 23
35 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Wolfsburg vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig nicked a narrow win over Wolfsburg 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 35%) promised a tight game; RB Leipzig found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Wolfsburg had 47% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 53%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 1.62 to 1.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Wolfsburg and 1.50 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Wolfsburg vs RB Leipzig?

Wolfsburg 2-3 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolfsburg vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wolfsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Wolfsburg 40%, draw 25%, RB Leipzig 35%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Wolfsburg)
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