Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melbourne City v Brisbane Roar — Team-Based Signals
Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
8-1
HT 3-0
Brisbane Roar
AVUS
2-1
HT 1-0
Brisbane Roar
AVUS
0-0
HT 0-0
Melbourne City
AVUS
Melbourne City 3-2 Brisbane Roar — Actual Match Statistics
Melbourne City squeezed past Brisbane Roar 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Melbourne City as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Melbourne City had 65% of the ball to Brisbane Roar's 35%, shots finished 24-3, expected goals 2.52 to 0.30 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Melbourne City's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Melbourne City and 1.33 for Brisbane Roar.
What was the final score of Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar?
Melbourne City 3-2 Brisbane Roar in the Australia - A-League on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City 54%, draw 24%, Brisbane Roar 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.