Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melbourne City v Brisbane Roar — Team-Based Signals
Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
8-1
HT 3-0
Brisbane Roar
AVUS
2-1
HT 1-0
Brisbane Roar
AVUS
0-0
HT 0-0
Melbourne City
AVUS
0-2
HT 0-2
Melbourne City
AVUS
Melbourne City 1-0 Brisbane Roar — Actual Match Statistics
Melbourne City nicked a narrow win over Brisbane Roar 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Melbourne City as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Melbourne City had 47% of the ball to Brisbane Roar's 53%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 0.77 to 0.32.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Melbourne City and 1.33 for Brisbane Roar.
What was the final score of Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar?
Melbourne City 1-0 Brisbane Roar in the Australia - A-League on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City 50%, draw 27%, Brisbane Roar 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.