Melbourne City 1-0 Brisbane Roar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 11 Jan 2025

📅11/01/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.18
Over 2.5
47%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.75
No
57%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
4.14
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
2.91
6+ Goals
9%
8.76
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.14 — our 30% vs market 18.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.89
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.4
X/1
16%
3.84
X/2
11%
12.15
X/X
14%
6.2
2/1
10%
21.7
2/2
8%
9.15
2/X
5%
17.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
62%
-12.0pp
27%
Draw
22%
+4.9pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+7.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
42%
+11.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
58%
-11.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.8pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
2.01/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.57
+22% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
466 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 79%
34.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
19.6 Crosses 17.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne City
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Brisbane Roar
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.71 xG 1.39
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
496 Passes 344
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.12.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-4 HT 0-2 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
10.02.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 5-1 HT 4-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
28.12.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 8-1 HT 3-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
12.03.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-1 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
21.01.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
14.10.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-2 HT 0-2 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne City
1-0
AWAY Brisbane Roar
0.77 xG 0.32
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
386 Passes 432
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City nicked a narrow win over Brisbane Roar 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Melbourne City as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Melbourne City had 47% of the ball to Brisbane Roar's 53%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 0.77 to 0.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Melbourne City and 1.33 for Brisbane Roar.

What was the final score of Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar?

Melbourne City 1-0 Brisbane Roar in the Australia - A-League on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne City vs Brisbane Roar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City 50%, draw 27%, Brisbane Roar 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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