Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Adelaide United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 11 Jan 2025

Wellington Phoenix
1-2 HT 0-1
Adelaide United
📅11/01/2025 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.46
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
48%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.48
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
26%
2.78
6+ Goals
12%
7.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.72
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
22.1
1/X
9%
13.2
X/1
11%
8.57
X/2
16%
4.68
X/X
6%
5.47
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.44
2/X
7%
12.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.1 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
26%
+4.5pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.5pp
48%
Away Win
50%
-2.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.9pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Wellington Phoenix v Adelaide United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 54%
+19% / +38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.49/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.61/1.51
+8% / +92% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +36%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
341 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 80%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.7
14.9 Crosses 18.3
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.1

Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wellington Phoenix
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Adelaide United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.94 xG 2.13
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
382 Passes 386
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 33
20 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.03.2024 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 3-2 HT 1-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
04.01.2024 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-2 HT 1-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
05.05.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-0 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
17.03.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 5-1 HT 2-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
17.12.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 3-1 HT 2-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
09.10.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-1 HT 0-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS

Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Adelaide United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wellington Phoenix
1-2
AWAY Adelaide United
0.45 xG 1.55
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
460 Passes 461
86% Pass Accuracy 89%
15 Box Touches 46
14 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Adelaide United squeezed past Wellington Phoenix 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Adelaide United as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 50% of the ball to Adelaide United's 50%, shots finished 8-20, expected goals 0.45 to 1.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 2.17 for Adelaide United.

What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United?

Wellington Phoenix 1-2 Adelaide United in the Australia - A-League on 11/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Adelaide United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 30%, draw 22%, Adelaide United 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Adelaide United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Adelaide United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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