Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Criciuma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.54
Over 2.5
45%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.27
No
55%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.23
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
5.02
6+ Goals
10%
31.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-2.9pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.7pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
61%
-5.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
39%
+5.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
40%
+4.6pp
55%
BTTS No
60%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Criciuma EU Bookmakers 22%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
1.53/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.20
+3% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
343 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
Crosses 15.5
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Criciuma
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.63 xG 1.38
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
276 Passes 373
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2024 Criciuma Criciuma 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
14.06.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 3-1 HT 1-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
23.10.2014 Criciuma Criciuma 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
21.07.2014 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-0 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
14.11.2013 Criciuma Criciuma 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
19.08.2013 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-1 HT 0-1 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
2-1
AWAY Criciuma
2.18 xG 0.34
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
309 Passes 296
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Criciuma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense edged past Criciuma 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Paranaense as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 50% of the ball to Criciuma's 50%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 2.18 to 0.34 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atletico Paranaense's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.67 for Criciuma.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Criciuma?

Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Criciuma in the Brazil - Serie B on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Criciuma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 50%, draw 26%, Criciuma 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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