Colo Colo 0-3 Fortaleza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 11 Apr 2025

📅11/04/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
63%
1.67
Over
37%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
38%
2.62
2-3
39%
1.73
4-5
16%
4.1
6+
7%
20.2
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.62 — our 38% vs market 30.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.28
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.85
X/1
22%
4.15
X/2
13%
9.77
X/X
14%
4.42
2/1
10%
27.5
2/2
8%
8.47
2/X
6%
16.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-7.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.4pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+5.9pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+6.6pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-6.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-4.0pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Colo Colo EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 22%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
0.91/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.98
-43% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +113% / -53%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
393 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 75%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 6.9
25.8 Crosses 5.0
3.2 Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Colo Colo
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Fortaleza
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.62 xG 1.86
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 2
337 Passes 247
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 18
32 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 5
26.05.2022 Colo Colo Colo Colo 3-4 HT 1-2 Fortaleza Fortaleza LKU
08.04.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-2 HT 0-1 Colo Colo Colo Colo LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Colo Colo
0-3
AWAY Fortaleza
69% Ball Possession 31%
12 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 3
335 Passes 122
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Colo Colo vs Fortaleza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza swept aside Colo Colo 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Colo Colo at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (59%) landed while under 2.5 goals (63%) missed.

On the day, Colo Colo had 69% of the ball to Fortaleza's 31%, shots finished 12-4.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Colo Colo and 2.50 for Fortaleza.

What was the final score of Colo Colo vs Fortaleza?

Colo Colo 0-3 Fortaleza in the Copa Libertadores on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Colo Colo vs Fortaleza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Colo Colo win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Colo Colo 46%, draw 28%, Fortaleza 26%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Colo Colo), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Colo Colo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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