Sao Paulo vs Alianza Lima Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sao Paulo v Alianza Lima — Team-Based Signals
Sao Paulo vs Alianza Lima Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-1
Sao Paulo
LKU
Sao Paulo 2-2 Alianza Lima — Actual Match Statistics
Sao Paulo and Alianza Lima couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sao Paulo at 64% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Sao Paulo had 63% of the ball to Alianza Lima's 37%, shots finished 25-14, expected goals 1.61 to 0.84.
What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Alianza Lima?
Sao Paulo 2-2 Alianza Lima in the Copa Libertadores on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Alianza Lima?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 64%, draw 21%, Alianza Lima 15%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.