Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Gornik Zabrze — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 11 Apr 2025

Zaglebie Lubin
2-1 HT 0-1
Gornik Zabrze
📅11/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
37%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.9
Over Pick
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.24
2-3
40%
1.76
4-5
24%
3.38
6+
10%
12.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.46
1/2
7%
30.0
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
15%
5.47
X/2
13%
6.23
X/X
11%
4.68
2/1
9%
27.0
2/2
17%
4.23
2/X
8%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.5pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.6pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+4.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.4pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Zaglebie Lubin v Gornik Zabrze — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +13%
1.31/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.24
-10% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
323 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 80%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
20.9 Crosses 16.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.41 xG 1.62
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
293 Passes 415
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 31
18 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.10.2024 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 0-1 HT 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
08.04.2024 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 HT 1-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
02.10.2023 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 0-2 HT 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
14.04.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
01.10.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 2-3 HT 1-2 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
22.04.2022 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 2-4 HT 1-2 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL

Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Gornik Zabrze — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
2-1
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
1.70 xG 1.00
31% Ball Possession 69%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
196 Passes 544
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
29 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zaglebie Lubin nicked a narrow win over Gornik Zabrze 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; Zaglebie Lubin found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Zaglebie Lubin had 31% of the ball to Gornik Zabrze's 69%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.70 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.67 for Gornik Zabrze.

What was the final score of Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?

Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Gornik Zabrze in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 11/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zaglebie Lubin win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Zaglebie Lubin 38%, draw 25%, Gornik Zabrze 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zaglebie Lubin), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Zaglebie Lubin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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